Wafer quotes rose significantly, and inventory pressure for solar cells increased at the beginning of the month [SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

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SMM reported on July 11:

Electrode

Price

This week, electrode market prices showed an upward trend, mainly due to cost factors. Since July, the market price of low-sulphur petroleum coke, a raw material, has continued to rise multiple times, providing strong support for costs. Currently, the quotes for ordinary power carbon electrodes with a diameter of 960-1100mm are 6,400-6,600 yuan/mt, those for ordinary power carbon electrodes with a diameter of 1272mm are 7,200-7,600 yuan/mt, those for ordinary power graphite electrodes with a diameter of 960-1100mm are 10,000-10,200 yuan/mt, those for ordinary power graphite electrodes with a diameter of 1272mm are 11,400-11,600 yuan/mt, and those for ordinary power graphite electrodes with a diameter of 1320mm are 12,400-12,600 yuan/mt.

Supply

Currently, the operating rates of various producers remain low, and inventory levels show a slight downward trend.

Demand

During the rainy season, a small number of silicon plants in south-west China resumed production, leading to a slight increase in demand for raw material procurement. However, overall demand still tends towards just-in-time procurement.

Silicon metal

Price

Yesterday, SMM's oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was priced at 8,700-8,800 yuan/mt, remaining stable within the week and moving up from the center of last week's transactions. Futures prices maintained a strong upward trend, with the high point of the most-traded contract within the week reaching 8,500 yuan/mt. The market's spot liquidity was average, and the spot price of silicon metal remained firm.

Production:

On the supply side, the operating rate in the north was basically stable. With the resumption of production during the rainy season in Yunnan, the weekly production of silicon metal increased slightly MoM.

Inventory

Social inventory: According to SMM statistics, the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions on July 10 was 551,000 mt, a decrease of 1,000 mt WoW. Among this, social general warehouses held 124,000 mt, a decrease of 2,000 mt WoW, while social delivery warehouses held 427,000 mt (including unregistered warrants and spot portions), an increase of 1,000 mt WoW. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc.)

Wafer

Price

The market price for N-type 18X wafers is 1 yuan/piece, and for N-type 210RN wafers, it is 1.15 yuan/piece. This week, wafer quotes increased significantly, mainly supported by the rise in polysilicon quotes. Currently, the market situation needs further observation. However, as polysilicon quotes continue to rise, wafer enterprises show strong reluctance to budge on prices under cost support.

Production

Global wafer production in June is estimated to be around 60GW. Currently, wafer enterprises are generally experiencing cash cost losses, with top-tier enterprises maintaining production near the cash cost line. Production cuts are expected to be more significant in July.

Inventory

This week, in the early stage of the wafer market, there was an acceleration in the pace of cargo pick-up. Subsequently, after wafer prices rose, wait-and-see sentiment strengthened, and inventory fluctuated slightly.

Solar Cell

Price

The price of high-efficiency PERC182 solar cells (with efficiency of 23.2% and above) is 0.265-0.27 yuan/W. Domestic demand is extremely low, and all orders are export orders. The market operating rate is extremely low, and producers start or stop production lines based on orders.

Topcon183N solar cells (with efficiency of 25% and above) are traded at 0.22-0.23 yuan/W; Topcon210RN and 210N are traded at 0.24-0.25 yuan/W. Driven by signals of upstream raw material price increases, the highest quoted prices for the three sizes have risen sharply to 0.25/0.26/0.26 yuan/W, but no transactions have been made yet.

HJT30% silver-coated copper (with efficiency of 25% and above) has recently stabilized at 0.35-0.36 yuan/W. Prices have increased due to fluctuations in market demand and cost control. HJT overall direct sales are limited, and integrated manufacturers are self-sufficient.

Production

The global production schedule of Chinese enterprises in July was 53-54 GW, down 3% MoM. Supported by the remaining volume of some installation rush orders, the overall production cuts were relatively small, and the proportion of 210RN production schedule increased to over 40% of the total TOPCon production.

Inventory

At the beginning of the month, inventory pressure started to rise, with low order volumes and structural differences in inventory across sizes, where the proportion of 183N inventory still dominated.

PV Film

Price

PV-grade EVA

The current price of PV-grade EVA is 9,500-9,750 yuan/mt. POE PV materials are traded at 11,000-14,000 yuan/mt.

PV Film

Currently, the mainstream price of 420-gram transparent EVA film is 5.04-5.17 yuan/m², the price of 420-gram white EVA film is 5.54-5.67 yuan/m², the price of 380-gram EPE film is 4.94-5.02 yuan/m², and the price of 380-gram POE film is 6.69-6.84 yuan/m².

Production

In July, the production schedule of PV-grade EVA rose by 0.24% MoM, while the production schedule of PV film fell by 1.87% MoM.

Inventory

Recently, downstream film enterprises have gradually replenished their stocks, and some petrochemical enterprises have gradually destocked.